Fictional Indian War Scenario: Skirmishes over the Arabian Sea - Part 1

Location: Somewhere over the Arabia Sea

Time: 03:00Hrs

 4 pair of 8 PAF F16 Block 52’s are streking over the Arabian Sea, their target the Jamnagar petrochemical refinery located in the state of Gujarat. Cruising at just below Mach 1 the ETA to target is 1 hour and 45 mins.

Code named Operation Zarb e Hind the plan of the Pakistan armed forces and Intelligence agency the ISI Directorate was to attack India’s industrial and military infrastructure with a series of coordinated simultaneous strikes.

Code Named operation Strike Eagle one such plan was to attack and destroy the gigantic petrochemical plant at Jamnagar, Gujarat, causing economic damages worth billions of dollars and more importantly show casing the ability of the Pakistani armed forces to inflict damages to their arch enemy at the time of their choosing.

The F16 Block 52’s+ (Advance) were the most advanced fighter jets in the PAF’s inventory .Decades of poor economic growth and faced with a tribal insurrection at their western border which sapped their defence budget the Pakistan Arm Forces were dependent mainly on Chinese and America aid. Chinese aid was in the form of subsidised equipment and the American aid was in the form of “Coalition Support Fund” which on paper was for reimbursing the cost incurred by Pakistan for conducting counter terrorism operations.

In addition to the CSF funding from the USA Pakistan had also continued to receive subsidised and sophisticated defence equipment from the US Government in the guise of fighting terrorists.

Part of the deal to help the US fight terrorists in Afghanistan and capture Al Qaida operatives in Pakistan was to get the advanced version of the F16 fighters that the PAF came to love and which the IAF came to respect.

As part of Peace Drive 1 the US Government provided 12 F16C and 6 F16D (Block 52+) fighters from 2010.

Now after a decade of being in service with the PAF, the F16’s were finally being put to use against their intended adversary.

At an altitude of 15000 ft. above ground, Squadron leader Bashir Ahmed of the 5^th Squadron, 39^th Tactical Air Wing of the PAF looked over from the bubble canopy of his F16 Block 52+ C, nicknamed Khyber, to check on his wingman, young flight lieutenant Sajid Khan fresh out of the elite Combat Commander School based out of the sprawling PAF Sargodha.  Bashir Ahmed need not have worried  ,at 27 Sajid was one of the youngest Flight Lieutenants in the PAF , known for his cool head under pressure and aggressiveness  at all situations Sajid had topped the CCS course the year before and had won plaudits from the Turks and Americans in joint exercises. Bashir whistled softly to himself while he checked on the Fuel meter in the Multi-Function Display after having topped off by the hulking IL78 Tanker over the Arabian Sea. All seems to be going smoothly as Bashir mused as they approached the final phase of Operation Strike Eagle.

What instead should have troubled Bashir was the lurking presence of the 7000+tonne INS Visakhapatnam, 1^st of its class of ships of Project 15B series of destroyers of the Indian Navy .Bashir and the planners in PAF HQ had failed to factor in the presence of the highly sophisticated and heavily armed destroyer in their air war plans. Unknown to the PAF the INS Visakhapatnam was going through the routine exercises required by the Indian Navy before her official commissioning into the Indian Naval Fleet. Part of the exercise included shooting down enemy aircraft and missiles with the help of the Israeli MF STAR AESA+ Barak8 NG combination.

10Kms ahead and on the left was Flt. Lieutenant Akram Khan. Information between PAF F16’s were being exchanged through the secure data link-“Link 16” that the F16 block 52’s possessed.

The superb AN/APG 68 radar was turned off for the time being to ensure no radar waves were transmitted to be picked up by the Indian radar battery operated out of Bhuj AF base as the flight approached the Indian coast line in total radio silence.

The Plan as to fly close to the sea surface to confuse enemy radar and take advantage of the sea clutter and bypass the radars installed in IAF Station Bhuj. Additionally once over Bhuj the F16 would turn on the ALQ-211 EW system to defeat the Indian radar network specifically the Akash NG and the Sypder SAM combination that might exist as per latest Intelligence reports. Bhuj was also home of the IAF’s No15 Squadron the Flying Lancers which were equipped with the superb Su30MKI fighter. 2  Su 30 fighters were assumed to be part of the Quick Reaction Force with additional 4 on operational readiness mode but the Air Planners at Sargodha hoped that with the IAF radars “tricked” the Su30’s would be a danger only after the mission was accomplished.

In addition to AF Station Bhuj, the IAF noting the strategic importance of Jamnagar had commissioned an air base at Jamnagar which currently was home to the No 28 Squadron: The First Supersonics equipped with the IAF Mig 29’s know world over as one of the best dog fighter. Legend has it that during the Kargil War when the Mig 29’s or Baaz as its fondly referred to in the IAF flew top cover as the Mirages were bombing the life out of the hapless Pakistani intruders, an F16 A (early version of the F16) was locked on by the Mig 29 radar, the Baaz followed the Governments ill advised dikkat of not engaging beyond the LOC let its prey go!

To be continued……

The Indian Rafale's - Part 1

2019!

Eagerly waiting for the year to come when we would start receiving the 1st of the 36 contracted

Rafales. Suffice to say, without making it sound like a cliché, those Rafales would be a game changer

in the increasingly challenging and complex Asian security scenario.

Armed with the deadly MICA and Meteor AAM (Air to Air Missile) cued on by the superb RBE radar

 most of the PAF fighters would be toast if it were to tangle with the IAF.

Currently in the BVR (Beyond visual Range) scenario at least on paper the PAF is at near parity with the IAF. The IAF do have the superb and heavily armed Su30MKI but the R-77 BVRAAM missile that it carries is plagued by manufacturing issues and cannot be counted as a guaranteed protector against a likely swarm attack of US AIM120C AMRAMM equipped F16 Block52.

Intractable issues with the R-77 BVRAAM NATO reporting name AA-12 Adder forced the IAF to hunt for the R-27 NATO code name AA-10 Alamo from Ukraine and support whole heartedly the home grown Astra AAM missile. So desperate is the situation with the R-77 that the IAF is even looking at arming the Meteor with the Su30-MKI.

IAF fighter pilots responsible for evaluating fighter jets in the now cancelled protracted MMRCA contract have rated the Meteor+Rafale combination very highly and subsequently would more than likely have war gamed the Meteor+Rafale against the PAF F16 and the PLAAF Su27/Su30 copies.

Once the Meteor armed Rafale and the Astra/Meteor armed Su-30MKI gets inducted the complete dominance of the IAF vs the PAF would be restored.

We will look at an air war scenario in depth in future write ups , lets now concentrate on what additional the Rafale brings on to the table.

Apart from the Air to Air dominance that the Rafale would bring in assuming the current inventory of the PAF does not gets upgraded ;with its RBE radar, SPECRTA electronic warfare system, fusion sensors and MICA+ Meteor WWR/BVRAAM missiles, the most striking and least talked about factor in the $9Bn+ USD (at 2016 prices) deal for 36 Rafales is the PBL or Performance Based Logistics that is engrained into the contract. At any given time 75% of the Rafale fleet must be operational as per the PBL clause in the contract. For an air force facing squadron shortage and Russian designed and developed aircrafts having poor serviceability and turnaround time the PBL of 75% is extremely critical to ensure the deterrent against PAF and PLAAF squadrons based out of Tibet.

More to follow in Part 2

MMRCA – India’s Largest Fighter Aircraft Deal Till Date –Part 2 – Case for the F35 Lightning II

It was surprising that the US Government and Lockheed Martin did not put forth the F35 Lighting II as a contender to the MMRCA contract.The F35 is a poorer cousin of the F22 Raptor  and meant to fill the void to be created after the retirement of the venerable single engine multi role F16’s- the back bone of the USAF.The F35 has it’s detractors though,it is over budget and has missed milestone schedules. However, if the US could have allowed sales of the F35 to  countries such as Australia, Turkey, Greece why did it not allow Lockheed Martin to place the F35 in the MMRCA competition, does it not harp that the relationship it has with India being of a strategic nature in each forum.

Let us look at a scenario where there is a full blown conflict with the Red Dragon in 2020,F35’s in IAF roundels take off from Gwalior in India.IL78  refuelers top up the F35’s flying in near stealth mode.The F35’s has its  powerful AN/APG-81 AESA radar   turned off and is using passive sensors to guide it towards its objective.Some where over Leh the “Phalcon” eye in the sky AWACS gives it updates through a highly encrypted data link on the enemy fighter movement over Tibet and updates it on the position of the HQ-9, the Chinese version of the superb Russian S300 Air defense missile system. If India has to make any headway in this conflict then the HQ-9’s have to go. The experienced squadron leader turns on the AN/ASQ-239 Barracuda electronic attack system. This coupled with the Mayawi Indian built electronic  warfare system ensures that the Chinese radars go near blind.The lowly observable frontal stealth F35 then lights up the HQ-9 missile system, its position and coordinates are then transferred to his wingman .His wingman selects couple of Indian built sudarshan laser bombs and lets them rip. Additionally two AGM-154 JSOW’s are fired to complete the mission.BDA (Battle Damage assessment) is left to the CARTOSAT-5.

The Chinese Air force does not know what has hit them, before Chinese fighters are scrambled the F35’s are within the protective envelope of the IAF Sukhoi 30’s.The F35’s have created a gaping hole in the Chinese Air Defence one which has tilted the war in India’s favour.

The above fictional scenario is a much simplified version of the utility of the F35.I feel even with the MMRCA decided in the Rafale’s favour India would do well to purchase a couple of squadrons of F35 when they are available to do just break down the “barn door” and make life easier for other missions to be flown against the enemy.

However, the F35 is not available yet, not even to the USAF and to be a part of the F35 program now would mean India would have to wait at the end of a very long queue. Deliveries to the IAF would come as late as 2018 or 2020 unless the US allocates part of her quota to meet India’s requirement.Further the US Government would loathe to part away with software source codes and other sensitive data in respect of radar,avionics and the sensor suite of the F35.The British the ever reliable allies’ of the Americans had to beg them to share the source course of the F35 and it needed the intervention of the British PM at that time ,Mr. Tony Blair no less to ensure that the RAF has the ability to look into the source course of the F35’s software package.

It is unlikely that the US Government would be so benevolent with India.

Also its is very important to note that when the US goes to war its weapon systems are a part of the entire package, the F35 would be a cog in the wheel, supported by the myriad of sophisticated sensors and electronics weaponry some of which are still top secret.Computer bugs would infiltrate radar warning system of the enemy similar to the ones rumored to have been used by the Israeli’s on their attack on a suspected Syrian nuclear site.The F35 would not be alone.

The F35 Lighting has been built ground up to be a low observable aircraft which also is one of its major disadvantages. To remain stealthy the F35 would not be able to carry weapons on its wings. Weapons are carried in its internal bay instead which limits the number of weapons it can carry on an Air to Air Mission some analyst argue that it would run out of missiles when faced with numerically superior Su30 or the J20 of PLAAF.